It’s time to revisit chocolate prices.

If you didn’t hear about it in 2024, here’s the news: chocolate is expensive.

My favourite Lindt chocolate bunnies are now $18.00 at Woolworths. So, what can we expect in the coming year?

In 2023, there were severe disruptions to the cocoa harvest in West Africa, caused by El Niño heatwaves, intense rain, and plant disease. Intense rainfall in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—two countries that produce 58% of the world’s cocoa—led to two major diseases: cacao swollen shoot virus and black pod disease, which causes cocoa pods to rot and harden.

This caused the price of cocoa to skyrocket. In April 2024, cocoa prices peaked at $12,000 USD per tonne. Before the disruptions in West Africa, cocoa was trading at around $2,400 to $2,600 per tonne.

Comparing chocolate today to five years ago shows that prices have almost doubled. In 2020, Cadbury chocolate retailed at $4.00–$5.00 for a 200g block. Now, that same block will set you back $8.00—and it weighs just 180g.

So why are chocolate prices still high when cocoa commodity prices are falling? Weather conditions are improving, and Ecuador has promising crops.

While cocoa prices have dropped, large-scale chocolate companies often hold futures contracts, allowing them to buy supplies in advance—this is known as hedging. While this protects against price fluctuations, it also means some companies have already paid for their cocoa supply for 2026.

Although cocoa prices have fallen to around $4,000 to $5,000 USD per tonne, they are still higher than the pre-spike average.

So when can we expect these lower cocoa prices to be reflected in our grocery stores? According to Yahoo Finance, relief may come in late 2026—and hopefully by Easter 2027.